Oh-oh. Will Disruptive Technologies
Threaten Your Business?

Mediator versus Info Dot-coms... In my presentations on the Internet, I like to distinguish between Info Dot-coms (Listings, Finance, Project Management, Telecom, Aggregators, Research and Infrastructure) and Mediator Dot-coms (industry consortia and new business models). The Mediator Dot-coms include Goldman Sachs, Octane, Office Technology Consortium, Project Constellation, RealCentric.com (launching today) and TheRealm.com. Admittedly, I don't fully understand all that these dot-coms intend to do, and the composition of these groups is quite disparate. Perhaps it's a somewhat artificial distinction. But my theory is that these mediator dot-coms are essentially trying to marry information and service -- before the Info Dot-coms can steal their lunch.

Certainly the Mediator Dot-coms are preparing to spend large dollars, with Constellation publicly announcing funding of $135 million and TheRealm funding of $140 million. So that raises an interesting question. Can you really combine information and service to create a more efficient real estate process model? How can you restructure your existing business? What do your customers want?

Well, it's not easy. Listen to business guru Clayton Christiansen, author of The Innovator's Dilemma, and his colleague Gary Getz of Integral, in a recent Fortune interview (April 3, 2000). The question was, How does a company restructure itself in the face of disruptive technology? Getz: "The key thing is that you have to be able to commit resources to things that are not provable or knowable." And Christiansen: "The only precondition is a CEO who has the self-confidence to make an intuitive bet that this is a business that is going to be real. The time to invest in the disruptive position is before the core business is sick. Once the core business is sick, there are no resources." ... So much for guideposts and benchmarks, it's largely a gut decision.

PikeNet Expo... "Building the Real Estate eMarketplace." ... If you're thinking about restructuring your business, if you're seeking a dot-com partner, or if you're considering a real estate technology investment, you should attend the Expo at the New York Hilton, Oct 23-24, 2000 www.pikenet.com/expo2000.

--Peter