New Year's Resolution: Obey the Fire Marshall

Precommitment Changes Behavior... "The truth is, we responded better to fire drills in the fourth grade than we do decades later." That's Jared Sandberg writing in the Wall Street Journal ("Why So Many of Us Blow Off Fire Drills When We Know Better," Dec 13, 2005).

You would think that post-9/11 and post-Katrina we would treat disaster preparation more seriously. "But when it comes to preparing for potentially life-threatening emergencies at work, many of us variously mock the fire marshal, ignore the hair-raising sirens, or assume it's a false alarm."

Jared even quotes an employee at the National Fire Protection Association commenting that "reaction to the annual fire drill 'depends upon the weather.'" Uh-oh.

So maybe we should pay attention to economist and Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling's comments about the importance of New Year's resolutions. (Virginia Postrel, "A Nobel Winner Can Help You Keep Your Resolutions," New York Times, Dec 29, 2005)

It turns out that Schelling's research, which demonstrates the importance of "precommitment" to strengthening a strategic position between nation-states, applies equally to our own split personalities.

Internally, we embrace conflicting goals. We want to both exercise and sleep more, to lose weight and to eat more. As Postrel writes, "New Year's resolutions help the earlier self overrule the later one by raising the cost of straying."

According to Schelling, "More is threatened by failure than just the substance of the resolution: one's personal constitution is violated, confidence demoralized, and the whole year spoiled. At least one can try to make it so."

The bottom line: Resolving in advance to participate in the next fire drill makes it much more likely that you will participate (and be safe!).